sddreaming the point is not that there are not foreclosures in the pipeline because there are plenty of them.
Once more, there is a pretty substantial difference between sitting on line and putting up data pulled off of websites and actually submitting offers and watching these properties go into escrow with multiple offers. Do you kind of see what I am saying? Inventory only grows when demand softens and if homes are priced right then they are getting bought. The homes that are sitting on the market now are not the foreclosures hitting the market, they are the homes that the sellers are living in denial and not pricing to sell.
Healthy to me is characterized by homes going from active to pending to sold with an active to pending ratio of 3 to 1 or better. Additionally sales exceeding expireds and cancelleds is also a good sign. Lets look at the numbers from 92126 in July of 07 and compare it to July of 08.
Sales in July of 07 34 at avg price of 506.5k
Sales in July of 08 31 at avg price of 401k
Expireds in July of 08 12
Expired in July of 07 18
Cancelleds in July of 08 7
Cancelleds in July of 07 16
So okay you can sit and tell me it is not a healthy market and that is okay. However I have 4 different people who are ready to buy in Mira Mesa but who are consistently seeing properties of interest get scooped up before they can come down to the pricing level these people want.
I am not saying it will not happen but I am saying it certainly will not happen in the present. I went on record last winter to say I anticipated a spring bump BUT I also said I was hoping for a summer slowdown. Looks like I was only 50% right.
The foreclosures will come. We all know that. The question is though, will people continue to buy. I think PadreBrian got it correct when he said there was no catalyst to prevent buying… at least not yet. IMO we need such a catalyst to rachet down pricing, perhaps it will be interest rates or spreads rising dramatically or perhaps unemployment. However I do not believe that the flow of foreclosures at least in Mira Mesa will be enough to further suppress pricing substantially… maybe some but not much.
