SD, you had the balance of understanding of the big picture a few years ago to ignore the rhetoric that R/E always goes up, it’s nice to see that you are somewhat immune to the opposite rehetoric that nobody will have a job and houses will cost less than cars, that nobody will buy. But don’t get upset about the rigging of the game. Those investors are playing with cash, not gov’t loans, that is how they can buy and flip, they offer both assurance and speed to the bank or go trustee sale where they are somewhat alone, they can buy places that nobody can finance, fixing them to the point that they can be financed and clearing a profit in the process.
You have an advantage, you get to see what’s happening before everyone else, you see money moving and it contradicts what people write on the boards about everything going to hell and we will all sell apples on the corner. We need you to tell us but we also need you to interpret it, why are these investors going into r/e, what are we aremchair quarterbacks missing.
On the inventory front, it’s weird, I don’t have an answer, I need yours. In my zip there 160 non shorts for sale, 160 shorts (shorts are impossible to tell if they are pending) and 160 pending. 40 sales a week, it’s dropped to a 1 months supply from an 18 month supply, what the hell is happening and why are people with boatloads more money than we have doing what they are doing and more importantly, why aren’t they listening to to the same music we are. piggies are supposed to be ahead of the curve, we used to be. Are too many buying and fading off, leaving the more bearish behind to sway the overall sentiment.
Aren’t the cash investors supposed to be smarter than us? they didn’t win that money in the lottery, they got it by getting in front of the curve. Did you actually believe the gov’t and powers that be wouldn’t put a floor on things, or that the market’s invisible hand wouldn’t step in. Do people here really believe that macro economics matter more to buyers than affordability. So it’s rigged a little, now that you realize it’s there, how do you make it work for you or for us.
The most important question isn’t what is going to happen to the economy, it’s which laker team will show up tomorrow and how does a basketball game relate to investing. I’ll tell you, Denver will double Kobe and leave Ariza free, and he will go off, if uncontested, his 3 pointer is on target, if you ignore him defensively he will slash. How does this matter? The lesson is the same, going blindly bearish is like doubling Kobe, you’ve seen what he/it can do, you’ve watched the film so you ignore the other forces at play, don’t ignore the role player with the open look from outside, Ariza is the inventory (doing things that defy logic, how does he hit the outside three when he is a horrible outside shooter, why is inventory at record lows when we are supposed to be in armageddon), Shannon, Fish and Jordan are the investors (you thought they were gone or they would fight over starting, but they aren’t), Pau is the government (steady and predictable) and Bynum is the banks (they looked to be injured and stupid, they need help, but they’ll get it), lamar is well, he’s lamar (I have no real estate analogy for lamar) do not ignore them or they will catch you napping, the worst part is, you know it in the back of your head that it doesn’t make sense right now. Kobe has the media’s attention and the numbers, shouldn’t that be what you worry about (Kobe is unemployment). I say you look at the whole picture and understand that there is more going on, which you already have touched on. Then again the lakers could get swept and this whole diatribe ends up worthless and we could all be selling apples.
