[quote=SD Transplant]Found this on another board, and I liked the breakdown of events on inflationary vs deflationary:
********
Future Events (Approximate order, arrowheads indicates high probability near future, dots indicate bad things with lower probability in the indeterminate future, checks indicate good things with lower probability in the indeterminate future )
Ø Termination of MBS purchases by Fed in March (picked up by Fannie & Freddie) (Temporarily Inflationary)
Ø $8,000 tax credit for new home buyers terminates in April 2010
Ø Next downleg in the US housing market, perhaps with European reverb. 2nd to 3rd Q. 2010 (Deflationary)
Ø Next big downleg in the US Stock Market (Deflationary) Parallel to 1930, 2nd to 4th Q. 2010
Ø Reactionary Rise in US Treasury Market prices, decline in interest rates(Dollar Bullish)
Ø Reactionary Decline in US Corporate and in particular Municipal Bond prices, rise in interest rates (Deflationary)
Ø Reactionary Drop in European, Asian, Indian, Middle East, Russian and South American Stock and Corporate Bond Markets, cash and gold hoarding in Asia, India, Middle East, Russia and South America, increased demand for US Dollars from overseas (Deflationary)
Ø Retailers fail, leave the malls and don’t return, in particular clothiers, electronics, jewelers
Ø Collapse in US Commercial RE 2nd to 3rd Q. 2010 (Deflationary)
Ø China Commercial RE and Residential RE Bubbles pop 3rd to 4th Q. 2010 or 1st Q. 2011 (Deflationary)
Ø Long time Representatives and Senators continue to resign in reaction to silent threats from the opposition and supporters in anticipation of a bitter and divisive November election
Ø Leftwing suffers momentous generational defeat in Congressional elections of Nov. 2010
Ø More southern European nations and Ireland require financial assistance from the EU
Ø Social unrest in the EU
· Unemployment extends into municipal and state governments
· Demonstrations by state and municipal employees, bureacractic ‘sabotage’ incidents
· Large municipalities reduce maintenance, water, educational, police, sanitation and fire dept. expenditures
· Taxes rise but revenues decline
· Many municipalities default
· Investment properties leveled to avoid onerous property taxes
· Rising arson rates in older commercial and investment property for insurance cash and tax evasion
· Official US unemployment rises above 10.2%
· US credit card usage suffers severe decline
· Social unrest in the US reflecting publics’ loss of confidence in government leadership over rising taxes, unemployment, pay and retirement inequities between private and government sectors, foreclosures, Wall Street bailout cronyism with the Fed and Treasury, medical expenses, declining municipal services, loss of retirement wealth in stock and bond market collapses.
· Criminal prosecutions of some prominent Wall Street execs and institutions.
· International Trade falls
· Ocean shipping companies suffer declines
· Decline in Oil and Commodity markets accelerated by unused Chinese commodities returning to market (Deflationary)
· Chinese social unrest as unemployment rises, money becomes scarce
· Indian social unrest “ “ “ “
· South American social unrest “ “ “
· Russian mischief in Eastern Europe, Baltic and Arctic
· Chinese government turns belligerent
· Chinese unions, merchant and business classes resist government
· Quadrillion Dollar International CDS & other Derivatives market Crisis (Highly Deflationary)
· American Investment Banks seek another bailout from US Taxpayers
· European Investment Banks seek another bailout from the EU
· Asian, Russian, Indian and South American banks seek government relief
· Currency crises in South America, Mexico
· Mexican government and social instability
· US southern border crisis
· Cuba and Venezuela receive stern warnings from US
· Venezuela suffers from declining oil revenue
· EU financial union strained, Euro threatened with extinction
· US military emphasis changes from Middle East to wider concerns.
· US Air Force and Naval forces under increased pressure in North and South Pacific, Arctic, North Atlantic, Korea and Baltic.
· Taiwan potential flash point, nationalists may resist Chinese demands with American weapons
· US Army and NATO increase vigilance on Eastern European borders
· Collapsing oil revenues constrain international movements and capabilities of Islamic terrorists towards America.
· Islamic terrorists react violently to Islamic governments for slipping financial support, domestic governments crackdown on terrorists.
ü Multiple shorting opportunities
ü US agriculture for domestic consumption increases to offset declines in imports
ü Return of manufacturing to the US but at diminished domestic demand
ü Ford Motor Corp. survives may grow to 2nd or 3rd domestic market position
ü Inexpensive food outlets increase revenues
ü Used cars become socially desirable
ü Automotive repair businesses expand
ü Farmers’ markets expand
ü Hotel and air fares continue to decline
ü Homes become more affordable
ü Municipalities contract private sector companies for maintenance, engineering, sanitation, fire fighting, correctional and educational services
ü Wealthy Mexicans, Asians and Europeans purchase former mid and high end domestic US residential real estate, particularly in California
ü Lightly populated rural areas become desirable
ü Used and reconditioned home appliance businesses expand
ü Movie tickets drop
ü Internet commerce rises though margins shrink, retail shifts to the net from the mall
ü Ebay and other web trading sites expand
ü Internet food purchases increase
ü Internet clothing purchases increase
ü Internet electronics purchases increase
ü Internet cyber security grows in importance as international attacks increase
ü Costco, Walmart and other big box stores thrive
ü Indian Casino Outlet retail centers experience some sales increases
ü Barter, Internet and otherwise, arises in reaction to cash and credit shortages
ü American genetic breakthroughs create organ replacements, designer bacteria for waste disposal, material deposition and construction,
ü Breakthroughs in physics open new, wider understanding of the cosmos and new energy sources[/quote]
Wow, that pretty much nails what I’m thinking. I’ll piggy-back on this one for my predictions, but think some of these will happen over a much longer timeframe (present-2020).
