SD R,
I think we both went on record several months ago stating that there would be extraordinary efforts coming in the way of governmental interventions to prop up the RE market. Neither of us said it would save the market or turn it around but we were both pretty convinced it would slow the decline and spread out the pain over several years. I think we are seeing exactly what we expected. I was speaking with a high level mortgage exec last nite over a couple beers while watching the USC-OSU game, at least he was a high level executive. He said the declines in rates were simply the closing of the gap between the treasuries and mortgage rates to what we have traditionally seen. He thinks we have another .25 to .5% downward yet to come in the rates in the short term. At 5.5% on the 30 year fixed, we’ll see buyers continuing to step up as 500K loans are very doable for folks with 150K+ HH incomes. These are the folks buying the 4BR 2500 to 3000 sq ft newer homes that will never drop below 600K on the low side IMO.
If I was an entry level buyer in a hard hit area I’d be thinking long and hard about buying if I could actually find a home I liked. One of these days, we gotta grab lunch or something for a few giggles over all the fun we’ve had the last 2 years. It has been fun….hasn’t it?
Bob007,
We have already seen substantial declines on the coast. Not what we saw in the low areas which were always more bubblicious anyway and not what most around here want to see as its an area that is high on their wishlists but definitely substantial nonetheless.
The declines will continue but the worst pricewise has passed IMO. For example, my own home is down about 20% off peak and will probably go down another 10% off the peak number (or about 15% from where we are now). If I had to sell I’d rent my house before selling becaus eit would be cash flow positive in a big way. There are some weak hands in my hood but far more strong hands. Most people I know have 400K mortgages or less with household incomes of at least 150K with most substantially higher. Are these folks happy the price of their home has dropped? NO. Are they concerned about it? NO. My friends and neighbors regularly ask me what I think and I tell them. I get a few “that bad? Huh’s?” followed by who cares I pad 400K for my house and I love it here. We’re not going anywhere.
