[quote=SD Realtor]Well Arraya all I can tell you is that you are not taking buyers out showing homes. Nor are you trying to sell them. I am doing both. We have bought and sold 10 homes in 9 months on our own. I have so many frustrated buyers right now who cannot find a home in PQ or Scripps, or Poway or in a decent school district that it is ridiculous. Once more, sitting behind a computer is one thing, but being out in the field and actually being in the business is another. The fact that it is all a house of cards is not being argued. Can you explain why the market rally over the past year has been the strongest in history? Wall St and the govt are interchangeable. Yes the house of cards will come down but not because of what happens domestically. We have been squeezing the toothpaste tube for many years right? As long as bond sales are successful then things will be fine. Even when they fail, we will monetize (or continue to monetize) our debt. Then rates will skyrocket and things will crash. Look we are doing what the govt wants us to do. We are doing what the govt does. We spend, we are told to spend, our govt encourages entitlement, that is simply the way it is. No it cannot go on forever but the crash is not happening tomorrow or next year.[/quote]
SDR, your observations are interesting, yet highly irrelevant to the big picture. I have no doubt in my mind that there are many Frustrated people looking for and bidding on homes SD. Grab what you can while the getting is good.
It still does not negate the fact that the we have had no job growth in 2 years and we will not for foreseeable future because of a complex set of forces. Demand will dry up and you may not notice it, “on the street” at all until the very end because of your particular positioning.
As we know, the two pillars keeping RE elevated are the government backing of 85% of all loans. And you have to ask yourself why is there no private money in the market without a guarantee. It’s not because the have confidence that it will go up. Second, is shadow inventory of an indeterminate quantity. Even if you cut Rich’s calculated value in half to 10K and release it to the market it would change your “on the street” perspective dramatically. If you remove the first, RE is practically a cash on the barrel game.
As you said, they are squeezing the toothpaste tube and getting as much as they can get out of it and will do so until the can’t. Then after that they will probably let it fall and buy every thing up for pennies on the dollar.
There is nothing they have done yet to get money in peoples hands to inflate. Actually government employees from around the country are getting their wages cut now. And that aint inflationary nor does it support higher RE values. Jobs are still bleeding, wage freezes and budget shortfalls the size of the grand canyon are popping up around the country. So until that dynamic changes all we have is the system building up *unrecognized* downward pressure. Kind of like squeezing the head of a hose closed.
As for the “Crash”, well, that we are witnessing right now. We are just in a hold phase for the moment. Next phase will come when it comes.
