Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.
So how do we interpret it?
Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.
As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.
Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.
This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.
Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.
