San Diego trying to get back into exponential behavior again. Number of new cases per day is growing but the doubling time is 4 or 5 days instead of 3 and it was linear for a couple of days there.
The r0 / r3 values are for a society with unchanged behavior patterns. From what I can tell from my Home Depot trips and people I know – most in San Diego are being pretty good about social distancing. Not so much with staying home but pretty good about small groups, not going to bars (obviously since they aren’t open), parents we know keeping kids home.
San Diego closed Schools two Sundays ago and schools the day after that so the 14 day incubation period on unmodified social behavior is coming to an end in a couple days. I’m hopeful it changes the numbers and r drops below 1 for San Diego after Tuesday or Wednesday.
Deaths may go exponential for another week or two, however.
