san diego, this is not the first “rodeo” for the Temecula schools, the downturn of 1992-1996 did not harm the schools based on how tax revenue is collected and dispersed, this one wont either. A little civics lesson but while the county collects your property taxes, the state takes most of it, throws it in a pile and redistributes it, not evenly I might add but based on a few factors, enrollment being one of them (a little socialism at play). Tax wise, the city will be fine, cities primarily live on sales tax, not so much property tax and the city has almost all of the region’s retail, (mall, auto mall, etc.). The schools are all pretty much new and were paid for by the developers, the district isn’t paying off huge debt from construction and deoesn’t have repair or refurbishment obligations looming so I’m not worried about them. Most districts are crying in the media because the state is going to reduce their scheduled budget increase, but that is pretty much just noise.
I actually think that the r/e crash will help the schools locally. School quality is primarily based on the staff. If a teacher is good and makes 60-75k no matter what district they work in but house prices are half in Temecula compared to let’s say carlsbad, why would a good teacher choose to live in carlsbad where their pay is 1/10 of the cost of a house vs temecula where their pay is 1/3 or 1/4 of a median house. This is because in areas where housing costs double, teacher pay isn’t double and that goes back to the way the state “redistributes” property taxes. The other quality factor is the students themselves, temecula has benefitted from a high number of stay at home moms, I’ve lived on streets where the number is 90% of the moms stay at home and that is why they moved here. Evidence of this can be found when comparing a typical school in Poway vs. a more expensive area, let’s say La Jolla, Poway homes are cheaper than La Jolla but their schools do better, why, the parents are of a different ilk, few move their kids to private schools and the teachers can live better on a similar salary. The recent bubble is going to hurt the poway district’s ability to attract quality teachers if prices don’t come down but they will always be cheaper than La jolla.
