Nouriel Roubini has an interesting op-ed in the NYT today that’s actually got very little to do with the financial crisis or the banks or the prospects for a recovery some time in the next year.
It’s about the process that’s already in place for China’s Renmimbi to supplant the US dollar.
First, the conditions definitely seem in place for the Dollar’s status to erode. We’ve got a stunning level of debt, and it’s clear that the rest of the world is growing uneasy about financing it all. We’ve also got deep political problems, notably a Congress that’s been thoroughly captured by special interests, and thus lacks the political will to take real action on anything
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Arraya: One of my Army buddies has remained in the Army and is now with NATO in Brussels. He says most of the Pentagon’s long-term forecasting has nothing to do with Low Intensity Conflicts (like Iraq and Afghanistan), but is focused on the Chinese threat, militarily and geo-politically. The reason the US formed the African Command is to ensure US control over African resources, specifically oil and to keep an eye on Chinese “incursions” into Africa and the Near East.
He also mentioned that the US is very interested in China’s internal issues, specifically things like AIDS and SARS, along with student discontent arising from unemployment and the fact that there is a 200,000 man strong contingent of disaffected former People’s Army officers who are unhappy about lack of benefits, pensions, etc.[/quote]
What you are relaying all has a “ring” to it. One can’t help but think of the possible ramifications alluded to here, when reserve currency and debt and trade policies are at at a point of potential disruption. Allan, (I’ll be nice I promise), is it too naive to think China would go directly at the middle east, specifically Iran…what happened to the tensions over Taiwan?
Now on the other hand, isn’t it possible that NWO and collusion of various countries supplants this old school geo-politcal jockeying that you describe.What will it be? Can we have both?[/quote]
Rus: Taiwan’s president is pro-China and we’re already seeing something of a normalization of relations between the two countries.
China is moving rapidly to acquire a “blue water” navy and that means potential conflict somewhere down the road with the US. The Chinese already have a strong presence in Africa and are now moving into South America as well (they’ve just passed the US as Brazil’s leading trading partner).
It’s all about resources: Who has them and what it will take to acquire them. This is the only reason we’re so heavily involved and invested in the Middle East and Central Asia.
It will be interesting to see if India develops as a counterweight to the Chinese.
