Good post. I think your analysis had good points to it. In my opinion I think we will see greater declines because of the points brought up by others. While this is purely based on only my opinion, there are hard data points that already support price decreases of up to 20% in some areas for certain types of housing. This is not theory but fact. Places like attached homes in UC, downtown, even detached homes in lower income areas have hit 2004 pricing already. Again, I believe this downturn will be interesting because I think there will be a larger variance in types of housing and locales. I would definitely agree with the post that sdr just added regarding LCV. I think we will see many people forced out of thier homes, (these people should have never bought to begin with) but we will also see just as many equity rich homeowners sit tight.
If you have to ride out a storm San Diego is not a bad place to hunker down.
