[quote=Rich Toscano]sdr — Good color, thank you — I especially like the point about May… I will be very interested to see how May looks.
I’m going to quibble with your forecasts though — not the forecasts themselves, but your confidence levels.
“There is ZERO chance we go back to prepandemic pricing and the betting window remains open”. — Really… zero? First of all that’s not a bet I can take unless you’re willing to offer infinite odds. But more to the point… of course it’s not ZERO chance. Prices in any market can go back to what they were a few years prior — this has happened multiple times in SD housing and it could happen again. I’m not saying it’s probable, but to say it’s IMPOSSIBLE is wildly overconfident.
And also, re your interest rate prediction. Your last rate prediction that I remember, not too long ago, was that mortgage rates wouldn’t reach 5% in your lifetime. That probably wasn’t even a year ago — and here we are at 5% already. (Hence my little joke in the OP). Given that you are a young, virile stud with decades left to go — this was a very bad prediction! But now you are making more rate predictions! I will admit that this latest one was pretty circumspect… but still, would it not make more sense to just consider that you don’t have an edge on predicting where rates will go? (I will admit here that this is the route I’ve chosen to take, but ONLY after making many terrible rate predictions in my past).
BTW I’m busting your chops you here because you have claimed to have the best predictive track record on piggington. That may actually be true, for all I know! But either way — if you are going to brag about that… I’m going to give you a hard time when you whiff one, ha ha. Heavy is the head that wears the crown! >:-)[/quote]
Funny you should mention certainty. I’ve been studying Wittgenstein’s unpublished notes called ON CERTAINTY. It’s actually a pretty fun read, for philosophy. We probably all need to read this to intelligently define our terms.
The book is free online, a pdf. It’s in the form of short numbered fortune cookie like aphorisms.
