[quote=Rich Toscano]As far as Black Friday goes, Barry Ritholtz offered the idea that people crowding the stores to get the discounts while they are available is a sign of consumer weakness, not strength. I’m not convinced of that but it’s an interesting idea. I guess we will have to see what the rest of the season looks like retail spending wise…[/quote]
It does stand to reason that people who can afford to pay a little more for goods aren’t going to be the ones standing in crazy lines to get those goods at a discounted price. However, I do feel like in the US Black Friday shopping has become a bit of an event in itself. I actually know a person who went out on Thursday night with no specific purchase target; they just wanted to be a part of the action.
I do think Black Friday numbers are a questionable predictor of how the Holiday season will go for retailers, but because it’s the first data to come in, it’s the stuff that gets stared at the longest.
I’m pretty bullish on the US economy right now. I don’t see Europe’s issues spreading here, and I’m fairly confident we’ll have an (imperfect) fix to the Fiscal Cliff. Every number that comes out seems to fall into the “good, but not great” pile, and when enough of that data piles up, you can’t really ignore it all.
