Rich, the tin foil hat crowd isn’t gonna like what you just did. You just redirected the focus to understanding the market dynamics as if the market is mindless and if all the data were available, somewhat accurate predictions could be made.
It’s more fun for them to imagine a room full of fat old bankers conspiring to screw the little guy, to control prices, to keep them from making accurate predictions. Once they are awakened to the secrets of the powers that be, they can outsmart them.
Placing emphasis on supply and demand instead of conspiracy, the “sexy” just goes away.
On a serious note, the ups and downs of the distressed pipeline do happen, but the capacity of the system to process those properties takes the gyrations out of it and the inventory is delivered at a measured pace. I don’t think the system has the ability to flood anything, a steady stream is about all they can provide and that doesn’t cause huge fluxuations in prices unless the buyers stop. It’s the only conclusion I can come to as to why the holders of distressed properties wouldn’t have tried to get everything out on the market while it’s being snapped up in hours and while rates are low, who knows how long this little “short term sellers market within a longer term buyers market” will last.
