All of the projections for housing demand are based on long-term trends / demographics. Projections are useful because they allow us to plan.
Projections don’t, however, take into account what happens when the trend changes. I think we are in the midst of a significant trend change for housing demand.
IMO, we are headed into an economic decline that will cause people to double and triple up in existing housing. The kids will stay at home (or move back in) and the new wife or husband will move in with the rest of the family.
I have a hard time seeing rents rising unless we are talking about the very top end of the rental market. Perhaps view properties and Coronado properties – the kind of places that people with real money rent (they won’t be as significantly affected by the coming economic challenges).
But the single-family house in Clairemont? I can’t believe that rents will increase for basic housing. Why would I pay $2000 to rent a house in Clairemont if I can rent the same SQFT downtown for half that amount? (I’m assuming the downtown condo market will depress rental market in coming years.)
