Regarding the comment on gold, yes I’m also nervous.
I’ve hung onto my ~25% of portfolio position in gold. Yes, I’m very nervous we could see a significant pullback from profit taking, possibly taking gold down $100 or more off the $930+ top. I’m hoping that does NOT happen. In the mid-term (24 months), however, I fairly confident gold will advance above $1200/ounce.
Regarding stocks, I believe the optimists are having some temporary success convincing the markets that the recession fears were overblown. I think index movement over next few weeks to few months will be difficult to predict, until data comes in (April, latest) that completely confirms the recession has started. So, my strategy is to start taking SHORT positions because no matter the fluctions of next few months, eventually Bad News will take the markets MUCH lower this year.
You know what I really wish for? I want some incredibly OPTIMISTIC (but groundless) news to completely dominate for a day, sending the markets wildly UP…and same time lowering the cost of PUT options on the indexes.
On that day, I will be buying puts, right when they are On Sale.
