You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue
– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.
Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.
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– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.
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One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.
Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.
