[quote=qwerty007][quote=Cabal] Every month ask 100 people of diverse backgrounds if they think it’s a good time to buy a house. If the answer is 50% positive, we may have turned the corner.[/quote]
I agree with a lot of what you say, but if you asked the same 100 people during the bubble peak what they thought, many would have been positive, otherwise why did they buy, but look how wrong they were.
However, if posters here are representative of the market, then it’s pretty clear that not everyone believes were close to a bottom. The very fact that we are still discussing price declines means that there is still so much uncertainty, which is not a harbinger of confidence. Below is apparently what Robert Shiller thinks.
HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time …something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline. ROBERT J. SHILLER June 6, 2009 New York Times
So without going out onto the streets and asking a 100 people, I’d say we have not turned the corner yet.[/quote]
Qwerty – That was just a simple rule of thumb to foreshadow the bottom. I didn’t say it also applied towards predicting the peak. I agree with you it would miss predicting the peak, however at some point on the downside it would surely suggest it, maybe 10%? off peak. Perhaps a better indication is the rate of change towards 50-50 on both the upside and downside. Nevertheless, my general point is not to get too hung up on negative macroeconomic news because they don’t necessarily drive or mean anything. Let’s look at one example. Yes, aggregate SD unemployment is near 10%, but if you scratch below the surface you see only low income areas like El Cajon, Chula Vista, IB, etc are well above 10%, whereas higher income areas like CV, Solana Beach, Poway, etc are only 5%-7%. The majority of folks in El Cajon are not going to be buying a home in 4s ranch, never have, never will.
What if interest rates rise to 7%-8% and homes have started to post a modest increase like they are now? My response is so what. People will find a way. They will borrow a bigger down from relatives, cash out the 401K, take the 40 yr amortization schedule, and opt for the 5/1, 7/1, or IO option to get the lower rate just to get that house. I’m also not concerned about the next wave of alt-a recasts, nor Chinas reluctance to buy our debt. China is in a catch 22 as they hold trillions in foreign debt, with the majority in dollar denomination. Any hint of divesting or unwillingness to buy more debt would instantly kill their investment. I do agree the one wild card is the duration of this unprecedented government intervention bubble, in all its forms. I’ll reevaluate after the outcome of the midterm elections. If the Dems hold power, my sense is it’ll keep going unless the economy show signs of becomes self sustaining.
On your second point, I would disagree that the Pigg pen is a fair representation of the general population. I would say the group is in general more educated, inquisitive, like to challenge the status quo, and willing to do tedious research to better understand a given situation. The danger of course, is being conditioned for so long by all the negative news and becoming permanently brainwashed to reside at least one sigma point to the bear side of the bell curve. The challenge is to stay neutral rather than become polar opposites of permabulls during the bubble. There are a lot of analytical engineer types here who like to crunch numbers and post stats. I say crunch all the numbers you want, that’s a good thing, but balance that against understanding the psychology of humans and what motivates them to take action. Also, most people simply just want a home to raise a family and move on with their lives. They don’t live and breathe RE 24/7 and visit Piggington 3 times a day. Finally, a few Piggs have already purchased while many are apparently actively looking. What does that mean ?
