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Yes, they are nice areas with great locations, but don’t be suprised if you still see another 10-20% drop in average prices once the shadow inventory hits those areas. Sky Ranch is very new, so there is less chance of that here. These homes were built in 2008, after the boom/crazy times. Not that we couldn’t see another 10% drop, it’s just that there is less of a chance of that out here, in my opinion, because a majority of the correction has already taken place
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Also, I don’t follow your logic about why you think there are shadow inventories that hits in “those” areas but you don’t think there would be any inventory issues in Santee. I think that it’s pretty safe to say *most* people shopping for an $800k ish home are probably more likely to be looking in 4s/CV/LJish areas to begin with so demand is “those” areas are already higher relative to Santee at the same price point. If/when supply suddenly overruns demand, pushing prices down in those area, surrounding areas will be likewise pushed down…Where’s the demand going to be for the $800k markets in Santee? Also, what makes you so think there isn’t any funky financing going on in Santee. I’d surmise that especially in a newer area, with less established credibility of older owners, there is a higher risk of questionable financing and stability. BTW: several homes in 4S/CV have been build after 2008/2009 and in 2010 at those price points too…Also, in san diego, clearly we don’t have a short supply of land.
Since you repeatedly ask if folks visited Santee, I have to ask, have you looked in detail at RE in those areas like 4S/LJ/CV to be making such comparisons?
