put another way, IMHO, (a) the odds of me wanting to move in 11 years are fairly high, negating benefit of 20% down 30 year loan (the odds of EVERYONE moving in 11 years is very high)..
(b) The odds of my 20% down having the same purchasing power in 11 years is very low. So when i get my money back, I’m probably only going to in reality be getting the equivalent of half of it back in 11 years)
(c) The odds of gold doubling in value sometime over the next 11 years is high