The problem with timing the market is that you have to combine fundamental analysis with behavior finance. The fundamentals can all be there, but you have to know what the physocology of the buyer is. While the fundamentals may indicate a good time to buy (which is when I want to buy) the public may not know this for a while still. Since aggregate market behavior can be irrational and last longer than you can stay solvent, you cannot really predict the absolute bottom. Even knowing what the realtors know will not be sufficient to know the aggregate market physocology. I think most of us would be happy buying around the trough, but knowing that it may drop a bit more or take a few years to climb out of it.
