[quote=poorgradstudent]I have a feeling the March 15th primaries will end Bernie’s campaign. Although the polls were badly wrong in Michigan, March 15th has a bunch of big states Hillary should carry by decent margins. Even if there’s one surprise (Ohio?) she’s likely to build a pledged delegate lead big enough the narrative will more or less call her the winner.
Still, after that it’s a sparse calendar with a month of mostly Western states that Bernie should do OK in. I could see him hanging on until New York in mid-April where Hillary will look to throw the Knock-out punch.[/quote]
I disagree with this completely. Are you a Hillary supporter? Campaigns primarily stop when they run out of money. Bernie, after winning Michigan did a fund raising event in 10 seconds in a hastily called press conference and just told people to donate to the campaign. He asked people to donate a few bucks and in a week, he has 10-20 million just like that. These are small (< $30) donations.
http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-just-had-his-best-fundraising-month-ever/
I couldn't find funding after Michigan, but expect a solid fundraising after that win.
I even saw an article where Clinton has a higher chance of running out of money since she actually has to go to some fancy dinner with a few donors paying lots of cash. There are smaller crowds with much less energy or passion at her events when 5-10k (HUUUUUGE) crowds show up for Bernie. A part of this is because a lot of people actually don't even like her that much or want her, but are stuck with her.
Bernie will take this as far as the convention if the funding is there which I think will be.
Also, the electoral map is MUCH MUCH more favorable after March 15th to Bernie (the african American south is sorta done) so he has even more reasons to stay.
Also, if Clinton runs into issues or gets indicted, her support and electability and superdelegates may change their vote since she may also have a chance to lose the election.
Trump also toned down his rhetoric in the last debate which will make him a tougher opponent if he comes off as saying he said what he did to win the nomination. You even have Carson endorsing him now. For all the idiocy that is Trump (I'm not a supporter), he is still a pretty smart business man and generally a success taking advantage of every advantage so Hillary and Bill, especially will have trouble dealing with him IMO.
Also, every poll I have seen has Sanders topping every Republican challenger. Clinton had some polls where should would actually lose. On the ones she might win, she also wins by a smaller margin than Bernie against any Republican.
In short, Hillary is the candidate the establishment dems are "stuck" with. The dems will always vote for dems so there will always be support and people will fall in line (that's that 70% Hillary support), but Hillary 'flip-flopping' Clinton is a pretty weak candidate that the majority of people find distrustful and in the pocket of the wealthy elite.
Full disclosure, yes, I would like Hillary to lose...badly...
