Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.
I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.
I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.
