[quote=pemeliza]OC, I agree with everything you posted except the last paragraph as you are essentially assuming that the demand will stay constant or low enough for the next decade to be satiated by a few nibblers testing the market that are content to get out at nominal prices circa 2 or 3 decades ago.
This certainly isn’t how things played out in so cal during the last downturn, so what you are saying is a variation on “it is different this time”.[/quote]
If we are looking at “a few nibblers” you would be right. But we are looking at 2/3 of would be inventory that will serve as future nibblers. That’s a lot more than a few nibblers.
We actually saw a bit of this when the 10k government incentive temporarily caused an uptick in prices. The inventory in my neighborhood doubled with a lot of unrealistic prices. Of course those lingered for a few months and got pulled back into hibernation.
