PD, that’s an interesting answer. I pretty much agree with your first two, but my guess would be that if there’s a depression, prices will drop by more than 60%. I’m not sure what the technical definition of a depression is (or if there is one), but if my impression of what one is is correct, then you’ll not only have severe to extreme job losses, you’ll probably have deflation also. I could easily see the median SD home price drop to 150k, maybe even lower, in a depression.
That said, I think the odds of a depression happening are extremely remote (less than one in five hundred).
