partypup, Have you read the

[afx114]

partypup,

Have you read the methodology that 538 uses? Yes, they rely on polling data, and I will agree with you that polls cannot be trusted. However, 538 attempts to compensate for that by giving weights to polls based on their historical accuracy. It is further refined to take into account current trends, regression analysis, etc, etc…

I recommend you read the “Process Overview” section of the FAQ to understand how they crunch their numbers: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html

There are detailed answers to questions such as “How do you determine a pollster’s reliability?” and “How do you adjust for the recentness of a poll?”

BTW, McCain is now down to 1.1% chance to win.