Original Prediction on Housing: I’ve been saying for several years that SD would see a peak-to-trough decline of 35%-40% in the median P/SQFT.
Revised Prediction on Housing: Make that a 45%-50% peak-to-trough decline in the median P/SQFT. It looks like I was too restrained in my bearishness.
Original Prediction on Stocks: I stated last year that we’d see the S&P below 1000 before the end of 2008.
Revised Prediction on Stocks: I’m with Jeremy Grantham on this one – a “reasonable” over-correction with respect to profit margins and valuations puts the S&P somewhere between 600 and 800 before the end of 2009. Again, it looks like I was too restrained in my bearishness.
I’d say I was in the 95th percentile of bearishness going into this mess. It looks like the 99th percentile was more appropriate. Oh well. You live and you learn.
Confucius said, “Experience is life’s greatest teacher, but her tuition is very expensive.” Fortunately it’s been relatively inexpensive for me thus far, but it’s still no fun being wrong.
