One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.
