One quick question, maybe Rich or one of the financial guys on here knows this, but when do they adjust unemployment up? So far it seems that we constantly are living a version of ground hog day, where bad employment numbers come in, the government “adjusts” them either it be seasonally or by the oh so accurate ‘birth/death model, and then we see not so bad numbers come out.
Then things get worse; and more bad employment numbers come in. rinse-wash-repeat.
IF adjusting for ‘normal’layoffs is acceptable, then there would have to be a time when they ‘re-adjust’ the other way wouldnt there? Shouldnt the numbers in Aug-Sept be re-adjusted up to reflect the ‘normal’ re-hiring of the very workers we adjusted unemployment down for in July? Does this happen?
IF the birth/death model is a way of stastically catching up with problems tracking job creation in the economy, then wouldnt there have to be a time when normal trend is negative job growth and layoff numbers should be adjusted up? It seems to have happened in January, why are we getting superior ‘birth/death’ jobs now (as compared to last year) when the economy is worse?
