OK, there are assumptions in there, as in any prediction of potential outcomes. But I still feel like I provided a laundry list of things that could potentially cause inflation to rise — none of them are sure things, but they don’t have to be, because (to me anyway) we are talking about risks and probabilities. I think some of them are pretty decent probabilities, but of course, that all comes down to speculation on the future.
You are correct that we’ve increased government debt for a long time, but surely you agree that just because it hasn’t caused a problem yet, doesn’t mean it never will. (Look for instance at the increase in mortgage debt in this country — it went up and up and up, with that consistency lulling people into a false sense of security, until people realized that security was misplaced).
You are also correct that we’ve had loose monetary policy for a long time. I believe that has largely fed into inflation in asset prices rather than in consumer prices. That could continue for a while. But it surely won’t be indefinite, and it requires certain conditions — foreign CB’s buying up lots of our debt is a notable one — that cannot be depended upon to last. (For background on loose monetary policy vis. asset prices I very, very highly recommend Grantham’s “Night of the Living Fed” essay).
I think there may be some timeline confusion here. You are asking, what WILL cause inflation in the near future. Well, nothing WILL (not dependably, if you see what I mean). But some stuff might, if they happen in the near future. Those are the “hypotheticals” I outlined in the earlier comment. So just to be clear, I don’t think inflation is guaranteed in the near future. (Nor is a lack of inflation, for that matter).
I think the OP is looking farther out. For his scheme to work, inflation doesn’t have to be higher next year — it has to be higher on average over the next 30 years. So it’s really more of a long-term consideration. My opinion on the long term is that considering the relative lack of productivity in our economy, increasing competition for resources, the chance of a loss of confidence in dollars and/or ust’s, and most of all how difficult it would be to reduce our debt burden in real terms, I think inflation will be higher than most people expect. But that is, of course, speculation and my own opinion.
