OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?
So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.
There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?
My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.
Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.
What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?
This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.
The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.
3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.
The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.
