OF COURSE 23% of people will say “I’m moving out” when their city is locked down and everything is closed. Let’s see what the survey results are after lockdowns are eased for a few months. A time of utter panic and chaos is recipe for bad data.
I also suspect that suburban areas and areas outside of major metro areas will be more vulnerable to a “second wave.” Lower levels of population immunity and governors that apparently don’t give a damn. Also, lower levels of mask use … I see 75-80% of people in NYC wearing masks, not so in the ‘burbs or in smaller US cities.