OCR,
As one of the original posters on this thread I like my prediction much more than yours as of this date. The proeprty you are referencing is a short sale attempt at a price the lender likely has no knowledge of and a smaller floorplan with less bedrooms.
Here are the last 2 closed comps.
2172 sq ft closed on 9/24/07 for $545,900. BTW, the buyer put about 30% down.
2445 sq ft closed on 8/22/07 for $559,900. BTW, buyer put down over 50%.
The last sale of the floorplan you are referencing (1909 sq ft) closed on 7/19/07 at $490,000. It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%.
It appears this hood is holding up very well with 5 current active listings and two others ine scrow with asking prices in the same ballpark as the recent closed sales.