OCR I would totally agree with you about the leading in indicators. Prices follow in a much slower manner. The typical ideology of sellers in denial is that they need to slapped in the face by the market before they respond. Especially on the heels of bubbled appreciated. The 2/2 market numbers are actually better then what is posted because we have not included pendings. True some of them may fail but more will be sold then will drop to exp/canc/with. A flat market number? My guess would be 1/1 but that is not any better then your guess would be.
