nsr, my calculations are all there, in the last paragraph, showing how I got 306,000. They are all estimates, but take a look at the calc first, and then tell me if you think I’m off by too much or by too little. I was hoping that people would look at the calcs and give me some feedback.
You’re right, it’s not the absolute number of defaults that matters, but the percentage of homes for sale that are distress sales.
Someone told me recently that the foreclosures I’m talking about are mayne not a big deal in the overall picture, since maybe that is only .002% homes in San Diego in distress; it is a number she came up with to make her point. But .002% of 1.1 million is 22,000 homes, which is almost every home on the MLS today, and would be 1/3 of all homes on the MLS if spread out over 3 years. That is going to have a huge impact, and that is the point that I keep trying to make and it’s not getting across. nsr, you got it though, but for the others, let me make sure you all get it: it is not the number of distressed sales or NODs that matters,but the percentage of distressed homes for sale.
So even if only .002% of homes in San Diego are getting foreclosed right now, that means almost every single home on the MLS is in foreclosure and we would see huge price reductions within weeks as these distress sales compete for buyers! Not only that, it is going to put serious downward pressure on the home prices of the other 1.1 million homeowners and lower their prices a LOT.
I hope I explained it well, but if anyone can make it more clear, please do so. Some of this is hard to explain.
