Not sure where the 10-15%

[Jazzman]

Not sure where the 10-15% price rise is coming from. According to y-o-y Case Shiller index, prices are only up 4.3% http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12262012_home_prices_case_shiller.asp

Predictions for rapid price rises may be misplaced according to the CAR. “[T]he market won’t be “corrected” until as far off as 2017, said Leslie Appleton-Young, leading economist of the California Association of Realtors”. http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/nov/10/housing-market-update/?page=2#article

If low rates are bringing forward buyers like they did with the tax credit, demand may wobble down the line, and with one in four homes owners in SD underwater, the move up market will continue to suffer.

And not too fast with the declining foreclosures please. The drop may have been largely due to the well publicized ‘mishandling’. NODs actually increased in July in some areas. http://www.nctimes.com/business/housing-foreclosure-rate-falls-but-rise-in-defaults-predicts-clouds/article_97008e26-076a-5500-93f5-c3f845625163.html

I doubt there is enough momentum to produce a strong sustainable recovery. More likely things will just tick along and remain volatile until unemployment improves and all foreclosure are flushed through the system. And by that time both rates and inventory may have normalized, which will put a dampener on appreciation.