Nice job putting together some thoughts.
Data supporting some of these claims would help your case significantly.
I think all of these are effects of the speculation, not causes for increased prices:
#1 Perhaps more low income people move out cuz they can’t afford to live here anymore.
Also, if this is true, wouldn’t rents go up as much as home prices?
#2 – If it has changed that much in the last 5 years (again – data?), this is another effect of high prices, not a cause. Plus, I think it is a California culture from way back. I remember when I was litttle (um – lets just say its more than 5 years ago) my parents would talk about how tragic it was that families in California had both parents working just to make ends meet. Data would prove me right or wrong.
#3 – Homes may have gotten larger, but lot sizes certainly haven’t. In fact, it seems the lots get smaller and the houses closer together. My 1950’s ranch in Clairemont boasts 25 feet between houses. I’ve been in Poway homes where you feel like you share a bathroom with your neighbor because the windows are 6 feet apart. The land hasn’t changed at all, yet it is really the driving cause of home price increases.
Oh – and if houses are getting so much bigger – wouldn’t rents go up as much as home prices?
#4 – As Rich said, I think many neighborhoods have turned up due to the speculation and HELOC ATM effect.
Um – if the place is so much nicer, wouldn’t rents go up as fast as home prices?
