new renter,
I relie on no one for my opinions, surely not a bunch of Realtors or the REIC. You seem a bit new around here so let me explain. I have an extensive background in market analytics, a couple masters degrees and an inactive CPA to boot. Initially, I expected it to fall faster but I adjust with what I see actually happening as I learn. Also, RE does not put food on the table for me. It is something I do because I genuinely enjoy it. My portfolio as well as the two successful non-RE businesses ensures that my life will be wine and roses for a long time to come.
Buying right now is a very personal decision and one that may not be right for you. For others it is. It’s really that simple.
As for the sales volume YOY, I didnt check and dont really care. Prices are set on the margin and it is the imbalance between supply and demand that causes changes in pricing. Sales might be down a little but inventory is way way down. This imbalance is keeping prices relatively stable in the face of all the issues we all know so well. Right or wrong, it is what is occuring today.
I also agree with you that CV wont be insulated. DM I’m not so sure about. The real issue for you is how long you are willing to wait. To put numbers on it, $50k yearly declines for homes currently selling for roughly $1M today would be pretty robust IMHO. If you are looking at homes in that range I’d be prepared to wait 5 years for it to get down to $750K or even $800K. By them you will be looking at nominal declines of 30% over a period of 8 years with another 20 to 30% loss due to inflation. If that is what you are waiting for, I believe you have a fair chance to get it. If you are looking for more, I think you might be left waiting for more.
