My major problem with some of these threads that are started is that they are meant to be provocative. That’s fine on occasion. I started reading this blog because there is a lot of good data and some knowledgeable people. When you start going to the far extremes in expressing you views it doesn’t matter if you are the person saying RE will go up 10% annually for the next 10 years, or that RE will see a 70% drop from current prices, all this accomplishes is to get people to think you are a fool and you lose credibility. The way to change someone’s mind is to listen to them explain to them where you believe their lapses in reasoning are and let them re-evaluate the situation. Running around screaming the sky is falling isn’t going to do anything to further you point and it can only detract from rational discussions and ideas. One can be “confident” and still be completely wrong.
Confirmation Bias is interesting. Is that like when you took your high maintenance/priced German engineered vehicle to your mechanic and he told you with out a doubt that it was a good buy because all he saw was $$$?