these are median prices for San Diego detached homes for 2003, a hot year for real estate, beginining in January. Read across.
$410,250 $447,500 $449,000 $443,750 $474,750 $500,250 $466,000 $457,000 $460,000 $445,000 $440,000 $454,750
Notice the drop from June’s $500K to July’s $466K, and Aug 457K. Then back up to $460K in Oct, down to $445K in Nov.
If you want to be whiplashed, check out the prices of new home in the last year (read across). That median is all over the place.
$520,250 $527,750 $539,500 $435,000 $468,500 $475,000 $495,500 $424,000 $422,000 $425,000 $395,250 $413,500
We need to keep in mind that the median reflects the mix of homes sold, and not the value of any individual home. If last month, more buyers purchased bigger homes than smaller homes, then the median will be up, even though the value of each home sold is at 2004 or 2003 levels.
In my opinion, the best indicator is available on DEC 1, when OFHEO releases its Q3 2006 index. I am expecting a big decline. The OFHEO is the most accurate measure of home prices. Nothing else even comes close. The only limitation is that the OFHEO index is published quarterly and lags by 4 months, so today the latest number available is Q2 2006 median prices.
OFHEO’s index tracks the price of the SAME SFR, refinanced and purchased with a conventional loan, and it tracks the exotic loan financed homes amazingly well.
