“Maybe I am a fool, but I do not believe in blaming or crediting luck for things that happen.”
Is that so? Three billion people on this planet live on less than $2 per day. There are over 6 billion people on the planet currently. If I had to guess – and correct me if I’m wrong – I’d bet that you were BORN into circumstances that would put you in the top 2% or so of the planet with respect to socio-economic opportunities. I’m curious, how do you think you’d be faring right now, Chris, if you were born in the middle of China or India or Africa, etc.? My guess is pretty much like most everyone else born into those circumstances… not well.
My point: looking at things from a big picture perspective, the single most important determinant of one’s socio-economic situation is that which one is born into, which is 100% luck. If you can’t see the role of luck in “things that happen,” then you clearly haven’t thought about it in much depth.
But more specifically with respect to business, investing, etc., I don’t disagree with some of the things you’re saying. But your phrase “after the fact” is critical. Most people don’t realize that they were taking too much risk until after the fact and often such “after the fact” probabilities weren’t knowable “before the fact.”
Were the business owners bankrupted by Katrina stupid for locating their businesses in New Orleans? Were the companies crippled by the World Trade Center terrorist attacks dumb for locating themselves in those towers? Is it reasonable to plan your business around $8 per barrel oil?
I will agree with you that many, and probably most, failures are the result of bad planning somewhere down the line. But, not all are – some are just plain bad luck.
Life is full of randomness that as humans we don’t want to admit and are not wired to comprehend. Such randomness has a far more profound affect on our lives that we care to think about, particularly if we’re successful and value a large measure of control over our destinies.
