Matt of course you can find examples of high asking prices, the only thing that matters is what they are selling at. Ignore those stories of the 30 offers, agents exaggerate anyway. The best priced on I posted two months ago, 269k list for a 2500 sq 3 car, newer redhawk in one of the better locations, it was one of those “30 offers places” and got all the offers within 24 hours of being listed, was only on the mls for a day. It closed at ony 279k, so those offers don’t scare me and 279k was it’s 2001 value, model matches went for over 600k at peak, there is still a model match listed for 575k, but it’s not selling.
I’m not calling bottom, just think that the next chunk is about to come out, not all over but there are a few examples popping up, popcorn machine is warming up, by the fall it will be more widespread at the next level and will be the only thing selling, this has happened at each level, a few examples and then a tidal wave of drops. The two properties I linked represented uncharted listing territory, more than 100k or 25% lower than anything matching to date, 25% drops in a month on top of 25% Y over Y drops. clear 50% drops on premium properties, with many more model matches in the reo pipeline for each. What will the next bank price be at when their model match needs to be priced after those close for low 300’s, at that level or lower.
Paramount is right, most every house in the valley is worth roughly half of what is was at peak, if it’s priced higher it wont sell, will it get cut in half again, I doubt it, I think the masses will fall to join the lowest prices that sell quickly today, and maybe another 10-15% lower from there at best. Not 10-15% from the overpriced listings but that 339k 4000 sq fter, 290 is as low as I see that going for, I just can’t see sub $75 a square in nicer areas or much below $100 a square for houses under 2000 square ft.
Here’s one you’d never live in but as rentals they go for about 1300 (cheapest I’ve seen is 1200, highest 1500, listed at 142k,($74 a square) only 52k more than it’s 1989 price almost 20 years ago, as an investment with 28k down, P&I is $701 a month, hard to imagine it drops too much more since it is $851 a month with zero down. I cant see more than 20k downside risk when rent is more than owning.
There are ten or so for sale in the complex, ranging from 119k to 270k, they don’t make sense as rentals for 270k, but at 119k, they kinda do, no matter how bearish or bullish you are. Rent multipliers below 100 cannot be ignored forever.
