Home › Forums › Housing › Mortgage broker predicts further collapse in housing › Martin Armstrong (you can
Martin Armstrong (you can find his papers on the web) bases his analysis on economic cycles
He currently shows the ultimate bottom in US real estate occurring in 2033 – that’s 26 years after the peak
What is a human’s investing lifespan? Or in this case, how long is a ‘generation’ when we talk about real estate? Perhaps 26 years?
And there is more than anecdotal evidence – read the standard on financial bubbles:
“Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” by Charles MacKay
There have been enough financial bubbles on this planet that we can have high confidence that once a bubble bursts, these things will happen:
1. prices will fully retrace to the level where the bubble started
2. prices will likely overshoot to the downside
3. the asset category involved will be avoided until people have forgotten the pain of the burst bubble
We’ve had numerous threads on this forum asking the question, “When did the bubble start?”
Most people think 2002/3 which is when massive monetary easing occurred in the wake of the stock market tanking and 9/11
I maintain the bubble started back in 1998 when income-to-rent and income-to-house-price ratios started to bubble up from their historic range
