Looking at stats is dangerous if you dont understand context. Here is an example that illustrates why. Imagine 5 houses that did not change in price
Before crash sales
1,2,3,4,5
Median is 3
After crash sales
1,2,3 (4 and 5 did not go on market because owners wanted to stay)
Median is 2
You just experienced a 33% decline in the median without prices changing. Im not saying prices didnt go down, we all know they did. But the stats are heavily skewed by a changing mix that make it look far more sever than what actually happened on the streets.
I used nicer parts as an example as I know those numbers at the tip of fingers but more modest areas like MM and SM did not drop like those stats either
At the end of the day, the markets froze up in FAll 2007 with most of the decline coming in only 2 years 08/09. IN 2010/2011 the markets were mostly flat (yes there was a period in 11 where they dropped a bit but overall mostly flat those two years). I dont care what charts say as I was out there selling a couple hundred homes and understood what was happening to prices of individual homes in ways the stats just dont accurately reflect.
Even if you bought at prior peak you are far ahead now. Could you have timed things better with perfect hindsight? Of course, but if you had the worst possible timing and hung on you still did great.
A house in my hood sold for 1.15M at absolute peak. At no time during the bubble would it have been able to sell for more than it did in JUne 2004. All the realtors laughed about it for years. The owner had a great job, could easily afford it the whole time, raised his kids there, loves it and is still here. THat house would sell around $2.4M now
Back in 2010 to 2012 when market was bottoming and buyers were coming back it was not easy to find a nice home. I warned people here for years that is what wold happen and it did exactly that way. There were few on the market and competition for them. It was never a free for all for buyers walking up to great houses and buying them easily. In 2013 the markets took off leaving many bears paralyzed with fear it was a dead cat bounce that never happened.
Many buyers that kept waiting for it to go down further got shut out and never bought in. We have a few of those here
If you focus on each word of what he said, yeah you can pick it it apart. But if you look at the big picture message of the market isnt going to collapse and will come back strong so its OK to find a long term home, get on with life and you’ll be ok. Well that proved to be correct
