[quote=livinincali]They managed to blow a bubble for 6 years after the NASDAQ bubble burst. We’re really only into this current bubble about 5-6 years. It’s kind of funny that we get really confident in their ability to control and manage everything right about when the bubble pops again. I remember how confident everybody was about subprime being contained back in 2007. We’re probably pretty close to being there again and we just completely ignore what happened last time thinking it’s different this time. Most of us have been through 2 big bubbles and here we are again saying it’s not a bubble. I guess we like to forget.[/quote]I wasn’t confident about subprime. It was subprime that got me to think it was a bubble. That and the fact that PITI was much higher than comparable rent. Today, there’s no subprime, lending standards are tight. Most buyers are cash or well financed buyers. Not anywhere close to how it was in 2004-2008. Houses in most areas still have not reach peak price yet. I haven’t even talked about inflation adjusted, just pure nominal price.
As for the stock market, all I can say is, don’t bet against the house, don’t fight the fed, etc. It never end pretty. If you start buying into the DOW 20 years ago and dollar cost average over the last 2 busts, you’re sitting very pretty right now. The DOW is up 340% over the last 20 years. How good are you at predicting tops and bottoms? My crystal ball is broken, so unless it is very clear like 2000 and 2008, I’m not betting against the house. I’m won’t be taking the lead, just have a stop loss in place just in case we get another bust.
