Last night nightline had a cool interview with T Boone Pickins who now runs one of the top energy hedge funds. His take is 4$ per gallon within 6 months. He also said that prices will continue to rise after that. It is simply a supply and demand issue. The demand in China and other burgeoning economies has tripled in the past 20 years. He also has invested heavily in the extraction of oil from sands in Canada fields.
While the middle east conflict has shaken Wall Street there has been no dip in the supply chain because of that. The recent price increases are due to increased demand, summer travel and an overall increase in energy demand as the hot summer continues.
T Boones final statement was that oil will continue to skyrocket until there is a normalization of the supply/demand curve. His implication (this is now my speculation) is that it could be 5$ a gallon, it could be 10$ a gallon. Basically he said it will happen when it happens, but that the tolerance of US consumers and businesses to pay the high cost is still present. I believe he did mention 100$ a barrel will not be a great surprise.
I believe he DID say it will never go back down to where is was at a few years ago.
With regards to the possibility of war and the affect, I believe that the only major supplier of oil involved in this mess is Iran. They are a problem regardless of this war.
