[quote=kev374] Most people are idiots who did exactly that and lost it all in 2008 but they will never learn and make big bets that they cannot sustain and then think they are doing great… wait till all of them lose their homes.[/quote]
I find the key thing of life is not to worry about whether other people are idiots but rather whether myself is an idiot because it has far greater consequence to my life.
But how could an idiot know that he is an idiot?
The only trick that I find is that one has to make testable predictions that can be calibrated with reality. Most people don’t make measurable predictions which I think is a terrible mistake. One recent examples that I find is Trump supporters. Trump always surprises them with his actions but since they never predicted what a good president should do, but only try to make sense from it after the fact, they will never find inconsistency and therefore their belief in Trump can never be shattered.
If no matter what happened, it will never prove you wrong, then you never learn even when you are wrong.
Learning is mentally harder therefore people are relying all kind of belief systems (including value is better, which is kind of motto of Rich’s site). But I personally don’t want to be religious about anything, as all my theory should be subject to verification.
