“Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug.”
LA_Renter… perhaps, but I think that the seasonal decline associated with Sept/Oct/Nov may mask that effect somewhat. It may be difficult to discern that effect. Also I believe that the credit crunch will ebb and flow. We saw a very harsh contraction and now we are seeing things ease up a little bit (much to the chagrin of many posters here). Everyone was all whipped up about it and we saw tons of posts yet I have only seen one post recently by carlover about the fact that it actually has lessened to some extent. I believe we will have a credit market that is tighter then it has been, yet it will oscillate between being very very harsh and just kind of harsh over the next few years. Especially if a recession does kick in.
I think that maybe September will show the full shock but I think that we will see seasonally low numbers because fall is always soft….yeah they may be adjusted somewhat due to the secular downtrend/credit crunch etc…I am just hopeful that the sales volume come spring of 08 will still continue to be below spring of 07.
My read is that at some point the sales volumes will flatten out and not decline anymore. At that point I am hopeful that the median starts to fall some. This of course is a long term projection over the next few years.
