Just got back from a weekend trip. A couple quick points:
1. Nice to see some heated RE talk again. It was getting boring around here and I felt the need to stir things up a bit.
2. I dont know I became labeled a bull. I am firmly in the bear camp and believe that there will be another leg down in many parts of SD. I dont nor have I ever seen a overall generalizable bottom along the coast until 2012 at the earliest.
3. I dont not have RealtyTrac account. I can go on for free and with my MLS tools and local knowledge, I can identify the properties I referenced. RealtyTrac is a POS.
4. I have checked numerous sites and have not found a good one. One of my first posts on this site was warning about the problems and intracies involved with every single data point anyone uses out there. MLS data is dependednt upon what the Realtor enters and is frequently flawed. Properties in the foreclosure process are missing critical details (loan mod?, short sale in process?, lender not moving forward on process). Its all crap. The best source of information for any sub market is a Realtor who has their feet on the street and can interpret the numerous sources out there. Admittedly very few are capable of doing this well.
5. Whatever the market does, there are always opportunities to beat it. One Pigg Poster/Client just closed on a house for $550K with me that appraised over $1.1M at the peak. If the worst isnt over (i..e there is another decline coming of more than 550K, that house wouldnt be free at the botom you would actually get paid about $100K to take it. The house he bought could not be built if you bought raw land for what he paid.
6. RT 66 the problem with what you do is what a similar exiled poster used to do around here. Post links and news articles supporting what you want to beleive without having a real understanding of how the RE market actually operates on the street level. Trust me when I say it’s the Wild West out here. The most ironic thing is that person became a realtor and now has a front row seat. She now routinely admits that she was wrong about alot of things.
Much of the ugliness in the number is already factored into pricing right now. Some markets are back to fundamentals and some have a ways to go. Blanket “watch out below” statements are for losers. Winners create their own opportunities.
