Just because we’re only up less than 1% from last year doesn’t make it a sign the bottom is coming. There’s a major difference between this time last year and right now: 1)Inventory drop this time last year compare to August, this year, we’re still rising. 2) We’re now at record high inventory again. Doesn’t matter how you slice it, it’s still record inventory. 3) We’re also at record high in month of supply as well since sales are down drastically compare to last year and inventory is “flat” compare to last year. 4) Last year did not have the jumbo/sub-prime issue that this year have. 5) Last year does not have a major reset coming in a month (October is supposed to have $14B worth of loan resetting, IIRC).
The next 2-3 months will be very telling how far this rabbit hole goes. We already taken the red pill, now enjoy the ride.
