I wonder if we’re not too hung up on “median” as a measure. I’m as bearish as the rest, but do think there is some increase in the median attributable to the newer / larger houses, no? One of the few reasonable things I heard the REIC say over the last few years is that the public is willing to pay more (both absolutely and as a percentage of income) for a house than we did a decade or two ago as the modern home is much more of a centerpiece to our lives than it used to be – w/ entertainment centers, computers, PlayStations, etc. Certainly not to the exagerated levels we’ve seen, but probably worth some thought.
In short, while I certainly am convinced prices are headed far south, I think something more than 4% might be reasonable merely due to comparing apples and oranges…
